BITCOIN · CF BENCHMARKS
Current 15-Minute Window · Kalshi / CF Benchmarks Settlement
Strike from the exact active KXBTC15M market · official index values from CF Benchmarks
Oracle estimates the probability of the official final-minute BRTI average settling at or above the exact strike.
CURRENT KXBTC15M SETTLEMENT WINDOW
Waiting for active window
Oracle probability relative to current Kalshi / CF Benchmarks strike
Waiting for fresh official BRTI, a matched strike, and sufficient in-window volatility.
Waiting for next-window data
ORACLE FORECASTS
Current active-window estimate and the separate NEXT 15-minute forecast.
ACTIVE WINDOW
Oracle settlement nowcast
NEXT 15 MIN · SECONDARY
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CANONICAL ACTIVE-WINDOW SETTLEMENT TASK
Frozen Oracle decision at 8:00 remaining, scored against the official settlement of that same KXBTC15M window.
| Window | 8-Min Decision Time | Oracle Direction | P(UP) | Exact Kalshi Strike | Official Settlement BRTI | Official Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for data | |||||||
OFFICIAL CF BENCHMARKS INDEX
Recorded active-window trajectory. Only observed samples are plotted.
ORACLE LIVE NOWCAST
8-MIN DECISION
FIXED 8-MINUTE NOWCAST HISTORY
Oracle nowcast selected at or before 8 minutes remaining, compared with the official Kalshi/CF Benchmarks settlement.
| Window | Result | Kalshi Strike | Nowcast @ 8 Min Left | Probability @ 8 Min Left | Prediction Time | Settlement BRTI | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for nowcast history | |||||||